I completed reading the book “Age of Revolutions’ by Fareed Zakaria a month back (Oct 2024). Zakaria (a Mumbai born, Cathedral & John Connon alumnus, Yale grad of 1986, first gen migrant to the USA) wrote about multiple times in the past 400 years when an era of liberalism, stoked by economic and technological revolutions was followed by a “let’s reclaim our nation and society” era of right-wing populism. Strong-man leaders emerged popular in this post-liberalism era for helping the “masses” go back to cultural roots and assuage fears of people who were flummoxed with the pace of changes. A better summary of the book itself will follow in my next blog piece😊.

The 2024 Presidential elections in the USA is a logical culmination of the theory propounded by Zakaria (and he’s supremely well-behaved and restrained in not going “I told you so” etc 😊). Since everyone and her aunt are finding the reasons for the resounding Trumpian Triumphalism, I too am pitching in with Ten I’s that demolished Democrats…and most of these have been sounded off in the “Age of Revolutions” (salute again, Mr Z!).

1. Immigration
2. Inflation
3. Identity politics – gender, elitism, (ultra) wokeism
4. Internationalism (vs nationalism)
5. Indigenous (the core (male) white bloc)
6.  Image and charisma (or lack of)
7. Incumbency
8. Infighting – late candidacy of Harris
9. Intellectualism and “I”

Immigration : This may have been the single biggest factor for the increase in popular vote for Trump in the traditionally democrat bigger cities and blue states. Real people were arriving in busloads from the borders and seeming to be a risk to the security and the livelihood of people. The apparent lack of control on this issue of Biden hurt Harris the most. The red states of course became redder with this too.

Inflation : Post 2021, inflation had indeed increased following the post-Pandemic dole-outs. Biden did well in controlling most of it. But the lower middle-class swathe had been having a realm tough time with wages not growing as fast as prices.

Identity : Please do not bring “he/him and she/her and trans” into my living room, Thank you. Is the message given by majority of middle-class voters. While wokeism may sound fair and progressive, educating the “masses” on being sensitive to that is enough. The ultra-wokeism and making people feel bad and belittled about this was perhaps taking thing a bit too far for many Americans. Abortion had its takers in the women community – rightfully – and if this weren’t an issue, Trump may have had 5mn votes more!!

Internationalism : Ukraine, Gaza, and the apparent helplessness of America in any of these, plus American funds going into these guzzlers may be irritating some or many Americans, who were struggling with rising prices and loss of jobs to the developing world already. “Nationalism, looking inward, being domestically independent” may have sounded alluring to these voters.

Indigenous : Well, tell what we may, a Black-Asian lady is too huge an obstacle to cross in the minds of a large bunch of white Christian males. For a nation where slavery was abolished in 1865, women got the right to vote in 1920s and blacks got a chance to really participate in society only after 1965, telling people that all is well and everyone is the same is a bit of a pipe dream. (I of course realise the irony of calling white males the indigenous folks, but you get my point, I hope😊).

Image and charisma (or lack of) : American presidents have to be masters of bombast and panache. In fact, Trump has shown this is important even if one may not necessarily have  enough substance. Harris and her word salads and rehearsed points just didn’t add up to stand up for an American President. Her speeches were uninspiring (except perhaps to young women, and that too largely in universities).

Incumbency : Of course…tough to fight anti-incumbency arising out of four years of parrying, ducking and dodging some really contentious issues. Biden himself was no super-leader, though his statistics are surprisingly brilliant, on almost all counts. His lack of will in taking illegal immigration issue by the horns, and lack of clear communication on economy (which he handled well) were unpardonable lapses in their communication plan.

Infighting : Changing candidates three months before elections reeks of arrogance, and the worst type of planning anyone could do. Such leadership mistakes do not happen even in small companies with 1mn revenue. And if they do, such companies perish. A third candidate could easily have emerged if this change was done 6 months before the elections. Biden’s refusal to smell the coffee (or tea, he may have been confused) showed lack of a strong decision-making structure in the Party…and the punishment for such a lapse is obliteration.

Intellectualism and “I” : “We liberals know more than you, and people who don’t get this are stupid”. Again, hubris, but of a different kind! This intellectualism and “I am the right one and virtuous one” have been the bane of many leaders, organizations and movements. My favourite corporate examples of Jack Welch, Steve Jobs, Travis Kalanick and (eventually) Musk and how such type of leadership is passe, is a close parallel to this type of hubris. The Democrat juggernaut went down the same way.

Fareed Zakaria in his Age of Revolutions ends off with a note of cautious optimism. He forecasts based on history that such periods of revolutions (economic, technological, identity-related) and backlashes of right wing nationalism and populism have alternated in the past. For “realistic balanced liberals” like me, I hope that the way forward will be a judicious blend of these two schools of thought. The liberal, free-market globalised economy, and all-accepting egalitarian culture will learn from its mistakes and revive; while at the same time respecting traditional culture and carrying majority of people along, both economically and culturally. “Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake”.